Let’s
start with mortgage rates. According to Freddie
Mac, mortgage rates have rapidly returned to record lows. Just now the main stream media is starting to
report about the new lows, so it is expected that we will see an upswing in
refinance applications. Last week the
Mortgage Bankers Association reported that refinances increased only .8% and
purchases declined by 4%. I believe that
it is too early to tell the impact the new stimulus plan will have on the
housing market; however, I am optimistic.
Even
prior to the announcement of new record low mortgage rates, housing has been
continuing to maintain its slow and steady recovery. Expectations for housing starts in August
were not met, however they did show improvement. August housing starts rose 2.3 percent
following a 2.8 percent drop in July. As much as the report is not
overwhelmingly positive, the numbers represent an increase of 29.1 percent from
a year ago.
For
the second straight month, existing home sales rose strongly, increasing 7.8 percent
in August. This is the largest monthly
percentage gain since last August and the highest rate since May 2010. All
regions showed significant improvement.
Housing supply is at 6.1 months at the current sales rate. Housing inventory remains tight and may not only be limiting sales, it is likely the reason that home prices have been rising. The last time inventories were this low was in January. Next week there is more housing news to come with the S&P Case Shiller House Price Index, the FHFA House Price Index and New Home Sales reports to be delivered on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Housing supply is at 6.1 months at the current sales rate. Housing inventory remains tight and may not only be limiting sales, it is likely the reason that home prices have been rising. The last time inventories were this low was in January. Next week there is more housing news to come with the S&P Case Shiller House Price Index, the FHFA House Price Index and New Home Sales reports to be delivered on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The
job market continues to remain sluggish.
Last week’s report on first time jobless claims jumped to 385,000. This increase was much larger than expected. This week’s reports did not show any real
improvement in that the total claims declined just 3,000 down to 382,000. These higher than expected claims do not bode
well for the national unemployment report coming out in 2 weeks. Last month’s report was much worse than
expected which was one of the main reasons why the Fed elected to launch
another round of stimulus to try and assist the economy in recovering.
Although
it is not as prevalent as it was earlier in the year, concerns about Europe are
creeping back into the minds of investors.
The Euro zone crisis is not over by any stretch of the imagination. What has also been putting negative pressure
on the U.S. stock market is the poor manufacturing reports released from China.
Next week’s economic reports are:
- Tuesday September 25th
– S&P Case Shiller House Price Index & FHFA House Price Index
- Wednesday September 26th – MBA Applications and New Home Sales
- Thursday September 27th
– First Time Jobless Claims, GDP and Durable Goods Orders
- Friday September 28th
– Consumer Sentiment
Sincerely,
Cindy Tomlinson
Loan Officer
Loan Officer
USLending
Company
DRE
Lic # 01520422
NMLS # 214851
NMLS # 214851
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