On
top of the Feds comments, the ADP Employment Report came in with lower
employment numbers than most experts predicted.
The consensus prior to the report was that hiring in the private sector
increased 171,000. The report came in
much lower at 135,000. Additionally,
last month’s figures were revised downward from 119,000 down to 113,000. Expectations are that the national employment
report will show an increase in the labor force of 167,000 with the
unemployment rate to remain at 7.5%. One
thing which we can be pretty sure of is that if the report comes in better than
expected, mortgage rates will rise sharply.
The report is to be released Friday at 8:30AM EST which is after the
release of this newsletter.
The
recent rise in mortgage rates has impacted mortgage applications
dramatically. Purchase applications
declined for the prior week by 2%; however, refinance applications declined a
whopping 15%, which is on top of the prior week’s 12% decline. Experts at this point are not expecting any
significant reversal in mortgage rates and the trend of rising rates is likely
to continue.
The
economy is no longer reeling from the recession and economic reports are
getting stronger little by little each month.
With every good report, the odds on the Fed slowing down their bond
purchase program increases. Mortgage
rates in many states are over 4% at this point.
Although rates are still incredibly low, borrowers have gotten used to
seeing rates in the low to mid 3% range, so anything above that appears
high. Like everything else, consumers
will get used to seeing mortgage rates in the 4’s and accept it. We have gotten used to high unemployment,
absurd government spending, and political scandals everywhere. Getting used to higher mortgage rates will be
easy.
It’s
a good sign that the auto industry, especially the foreign automakers, BMW and
Mercedes, plan to keep production running through the summer for most models,
which goes against the usual tradition of stopping production during the summer
months. U.S. automakers have also
experienced growth in car sales; however, they have not made any announcement
regarding summer production plans.
Economic reports for next
week are:
- Wednesday June 12th - MBA Report and 10 Year Note
Auction
- Thursday June 13th - First Time Jobless Claims and
Retail Sales
- Friday June 14th – Producer Price Index and Industrial
Production
Cindy Tomlinson
Loan Officer
Loan Officer
USLending Company
DRE Lic # 01520422
NMLS # 214851
NMLS # 214851
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