The
Fed released the minutes from their most recent policy meeting and it was clear
that they are not ready to make any changes to economic policy. However, it does appear that the board is
becoming more and more divided on what economic data would create a shift in
policy.
It
is hard to predict what is going to happen in the economy for the simple reason
that, overall, the labor market is improving, as well as the housing
market. However, the recent rise in mortgage rates, combined with the rapid rise of home prices in many markets, is
causing the home affordability index to decline. Simply put, if the cost of acquiring a home
rises, as well as the cost of borrowing for the home, ownership becomes less
affordable. Additionally, the recent
rise in oil is starting to be felt at the gas pumps. Prices are not yet at the point that they
will cause most consumers to change their spending habits; however, if the
increases continue, consumer behavior will likely be impacted.
Despite
the rates’ gradual retreat, the impact of the rapid run up was felt in the
mortgage and real estate market last week.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase applications
declined by 3% and refinances went down by 4%.
More than likely with the rate improvement this week the MBA’s next
report will show an increase in mortgage applications for both purchases and refinances. Rates overall are at the
highest point they have been in 2 years.
First
time jobless claims shot up; however, the July 6th week is filled with special
factors that could cause the jump.
Claims rose 16,000 to 360,000 which is far above the Econoday consensus
for 337,000. The 4-week average is up a
sizable 6,000 to 351,750, which, against the month-ago comparison, is also up
6,000 in a reading that doesn't point to improvement underway in the labor
market.The special factors that could play a role in the jump are the holiday shortened week, the summer retooling in the auto industry, and the end of the school year. All these factors make today's report very hard to interpret as a trend or just a blip.
Market
moving reports for next week are:
- Monday July 15th – Retail Sales
- Tuesday July 16th -
Price Index, Industrial Production and Housing Market Index
- Wednesday July 17th - MBA Applications and Housing
Starts
- Thursday July 18th – First Time Jobless Claims
I appreciate your business
and look forward to talking to you soon! Have a great day!!!
Sincerely,
Cindy Tomlinson
Loan Officer
Loan Officer
USLending Company
DRE Lic # 01520422
NMLS # 214851
NMLS # 214851
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