We
are going from feast to famine when it comes to economic data reports. This week was a combination of the government
catching up from all the reports that were delayed due to the shutdown and the
normally scheduled reporting.
Monday
kicked off the reporting with the sales of existing homes being reported as
flat. This has been the trend for the
last couple of months in which September was down 1.9 percent, and August was
revised to be flat. Sales fell in 3 of
the report's 4 regions with only the West showing a gain, and only a small gain
following a decline in August.
Homes are not coming onto the market with any real gusto and the current inventory supply is at 5.0 months versus 4.9 and 5.0 months in the two prior months. The lack of activity is being reflected in prices, which are starting to either stabilize or decline slightly. Remember, just a few months ago home prices were rising rapidly, especially in the west, and that had many concerned if we were on our way to creating another real estate bubble.
Mortgage rates have been declining; however, it has not yet seemed to translate into causing buyers to jump into the market nor refinances to significantly increase. It appears that the shutdown created a lot of uncertainty in the minds of home purchasers. Even though mortgage rates are almost ½% lower than a few weeks ago, the concern about the economy and government are taking first place in the minds of purchasers and keeping them on the sidelines. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase and refinance applications have remained virtually unchanged.
Homes are not coming onto the market with any real gusto and the current inventory supply is at 5.0 months versus 4.9 and 5.0 months in the two prior months. The lack of activity is being reflected in prices, which are starting to either stabilize or decline slightly. Remember, just a few months ago home prices were rising rapidly, especially in the west, and that had many concerned if we were on our way to creating another real estate bubble.
Mortgage rates have been declining; however, it has not yet seemed to translate into causing buyers to jump into the market nor refinances to significantly increase. It appears that the shutdown created a lot of uncertainty in the minds of home purchasers. Even though mortgage rates are almost ½% lower than a few weeks ago, the concern about the economy and government are taking first place in the minds of purchasers and keeping them on the sidelines. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase and refinance applications have remained virtually unchanged.
Tuesdays
release of September’s employment numbers was met with little more than a yawn
by the markets. The unemployment rate
declined .1% down to 7.2%. As has been
reported over and over again, the decline in unemployment is mostly related to
people giving up looking for work rather than companies actually increasing the
size of their workforce.
The
Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices are still rising, but
at a slowing pace. The report shows that
prices increased .3% in August down from .8% in July. Most analysts were expecting an increase of
.8%.
As
much as the markets didn’t react too much to anything that came out this week, next
week’s reports have the potential to impact the markets significantly based
upon the number of reports, as well as the importance of them.
Next
week’s market moving reports:
·
Monday October 28th
– Industrial Production and Pending Home Sales
·
Tuesday October
29th – Producer Price Index, Retail Sales and Case-Shiller Index
·
Wednesday October
30th - MBA Purchase Applications, CPI and FOMC Announcement
- Thursday October 31st - First Time Jobless Claims
- Friday November 1st – ISM Manufacturing Index
Sincerely,
Cindy Tomlinson
Loan Officer
Loan Officer
USLending Company
BRE Lic # 01520422
NMLS # 214851
NMLS # 214851
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